BANKING PREDICTIONS 2026

Six forces reshaping competition in African banking

Backbase

The continent's $126 billion banking sector is being reshaped by AI, digital challengers, and new customer expectations. Here are the six forces driving what comes next

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Why these predictions matter

African banking is entering a new era of competition. Digital challengers are gaining ground, AI is moving from pilots to production, and customer expectations are being set by platforms outside of banking entirely. This report cuts through the noise to identify the six forces that will shape who wins and who falls behind.

Part of a global series

Built on Backbase's global 2026 predictions and localised with insights from banking leaders across the continent, it's designed to help executives prioritise what matters most right now.

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01: The AI-powered bank

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African banks have spent years experimenting with AI at the edges: chatbots, pilots, isolated use cases. That phase is ending. Rising costs and talent shortages are pushing banks to embed AI into everyday operations, from servicing and compliance to code generation. The winners won't be banks with the best AI tools. They'll be the ones that rewire how their teams work alongside them.

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02: The digital bank breakthrough (this time it's real)

Intestazione

For years, digital banks in Africa were more promise than reality. Not anymore. TymeBank is profitable. Kuda has passed 5 million users. Revolut just got licensed in Egypt. The real threat isn't mass exodus. It's selective migration, where the most valuable customers quietly shift their daily banking to challengers while keeping salary deposits with incumbents.

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03: The open finance revolution

Intestazione

Open banking used to be a compliance exercise. Now it's becoming a growth strategy. Banks across Africa are starting to embed payments, credit, and identity services directly into the platforms customers already use. Those treating APIs as products, with real pricing and commercial ownership, are unlocking new revenue without expanding their balance sheets.

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04: The invisible retail bank

Intestazione

The best banking experiences are the ones customers barely notice. With over 1.1 billion mobile money accounts across Sub-Saharan Africa, the foundations for invisible banking already exist. Absa's ChatWallet lets users send payments and buy airtime inside WhatsApp, no account required. That's the direction: banking that meets people where they are, not the other way around.

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05: The democratisation of wealth management

Intestazione

Africa's middle class is expected to surpass 500 million people by 2030. That's a massive wealth management opportunity, but manual advisory models can't scale to serve it. Automation is making it possible to offer portfolio monitoring, rebalancing, and structured advice to clients who would never have qualified for a private banker. The advisor doesn't disappear. The role just gets more strategic.

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06: The rise of SME banking as growth engine

Intestazione

SMEs are the backbone of African economies, yet they remain dramatically underserved. The shift from collateral-based to data-based lending is changing that. By integrating with cloud accounting software and digital storefronts, banks can now lend based on real-time cash flow rather than last year's audited accounts. Equity Group in Kenya accounted for nearly 45% of all MSME loan disbursements in the first half of 2025. The "Missing Middle" is becoming the growth engine.

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Backbase

Dominic Provençal

Backbase

Head of MCB Overseas at Mauritius Commercial Bank

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Africa is in the right state to embark on the AI revolution. By embodying AI agents within the shores of banking to handle routine tasks, we can overcome the scarcity of talent and empower our teams to focus on the value-added work that drives growth.

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Likeleli Monyamane

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Head of Digital Programs, Personal & Private Banking at Standard Bank

Testimonial
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The bank that wins will be the one that can preempt and solve customer needs on the spot, without delays, and be the 'go-to bank' for solving their problems.

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Heidi Custers

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Global Strategy & Transformation Director at Backbase

Testimonial
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The question isn't whether digital banks will succeed, it's how quickly incumbents can close the experience gap. Traditional banks that match digital-first experiences while leveraging their trust and scale advantages will be best positioned.

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Alina Beleuta

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Chief Growth Officer at Salt Edge

Testimonial

Open Banking APIs are the foundation for banks to enable APIs as a customer acquisition channel. While the Middle East is focusing on adopting Open Finance regulated APIs and Banking-as-a-Service APIs, in Africa, APIs enable connections between banks and mobile money operators, expanding access to underbanked populations—driven mostly by market need rather than regulation.

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Rom Atapattu

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Co-founder and Group CEO at Patronus Group

Testimonial

AI doesn't disrupt the advisor, it makes them more informed. An AI agent can synthesize years of call history, transactions, and portfolio data (work that takes 6 to 8 hours manually) and present it instantly, allowing relationship managers to have educated, personalized conversations with clients.

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Shameer Patel

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Director - Retail & Business Banking at I&M Bank Ltd

Testimonial
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We are seeing a transformative future for SMEs in the region, where persistent challenges like financing gaps and infrastructural hurdles are overcome through innovative digital data-driven solutions. By harnessing AI, tokenization, and inclusive financial ecosystems supported by proactive government policy changes we are witnessing unlocking of unprecedented access to financial services with ease and scale to propel SMEs across Kenya and Africa at large.

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Sashia Oosthuizen

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Strategy & Transformation Executive at Nedbank

Testimonial

Alternative data is replacing physical collateral as the primary currency of trust in SME lending. By analyzing real-time cash flow and digital sales records instead of requiring traditional security, banks can shift from reactive risk assessment to proactive support, unlocking the segment previously constrained by collateral requirements.

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  • Explore the global predictions for 2026

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Discover the trends that will define banking in 2026,
then find out how to turn them into sustainable growth.

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