Six forces reshaping competition in African banking
Backbase
The continent's $126 billion banking sector is being reshaped by AI, digital challengers, and new customer expectations. Here are the six forces driving what comes next
Why these predictions matter
African banking is entering a new era of competition. Digital challengers are gaining ground, AI is moving from pilots to production, and customer expectations are being set by platforms outside of banking entirely. This report cuts through the noise to identify the six forces that will shape who wins and who falls behind.
Part of a global series
Built on Backbase's global 2026 predictions and localised with insights from banking leaders across the continent, it's designed to help executives prioritise what matters most right now.

01: The AI-powered bank
Heading
African banks have spent years experimenting with AI at the edges: chatbots, pilots, isolated use cases. That phase is ending. Rising costs and talent shortages are pushing banks to embed AI into everyday operations, from servicing and compliance to code generation. The winners won't be banks with the best AI tools. They'll be the ones that rewire how their teams work alongside them.
02: The digital bank breakthrough (this time it's real)
Heading
For years, digital banks in Africa were more promise than reality. Not anymore. TymeBank is profitable. Kuda has passed 5 million users. Revolut just got licensed in Egypt. The real threat isn't mass exodus. It's selective migration, where the most valuable customers quietly shift their daily banking to challengers while keeping salary deposits with incumbents.
03: The open finance revolution
Heading
Open banking used to be a compliance exercise. Now it's becoming a growth strategy. Banks across Africa are starting to embed payments, credit, and identity services directly into the platforms customers already use. Those treating APIs as products, with real pricing and commercial ownership, are unlocking new revenue without expanding their balance sheets.
04: The invisible retail bank
Heading
The best banking experiences are the ones customers barely notice. With over 1.1 billion mobile money accounts across Sub-Saharan Africa, the foundations for invisible banking already exist. Absa's ChatWallet lets users send payments and buy airtime inside WhatsApp, no account required. That's the direction: banking that meets people where they are, not the other way around.
05: The democratisation of wealth management
Heading
Africa's middle class is expected to surpass 500 million people by 2030. That's a massive wealth management opportunity, but manual advisory models can't scale to serve it. Automation is making it possible to offer portfolio monitoring, rebalancing, and structured advice to clients who would never have qualified for a private banker. The advisor doesn't disappear. The role just gets more strategic.
06: The rise of SME banking as growth engine
Heading
SMEs are the backbone of African economies, yet they remain dramatically underserved. The shift from collateral-based to data-based lending is changing that. By integrating with cloud accounting software and digital storefronts, banks can now lend based on real-time cash flow rather than last year's audited accounts. Equity Group in Kenya accounted for nearly 45% of all MSME loan disbursements in the first half of 2025. The "Missing Middle" is becoming the growth engine.

- Explore the global predictions for 2026
Backbase
Discover the trends that will define banking in 2026,
then find out how to turn them into sustainable growth.
Backbase







.jpg)
