AI in banking

AI-native banking: the 36-month window to survive or disappear

20 January 2026
3
mins read

I've been watching banks deploy AI for three years now. Every bank has it. But having AI and being AI-native are completely different things. That gap is where hundreds of banks will disappear.

What AI-native banking actually means

Let's be precise about definitions, because the industry is drowning in loose terminology.

AI-native banking means your architecture was designed from the ground up for AI and human operators to work together as equal participants in every workflow, governed by the same policies, operating on the same unified data, coordinated through a single orchestration layer.

Not AI features added to existing platforms. Not chatbots sitting on top of legacy systems. Not machine learning models operating in isolation.

Native means AI is foundational to how the bank operates, not decorative on top of what already exists.

According to McKinsey's 2025 banking research, banks that successfully operationalize AI see 20-30% productivity improvements and significant margin expansion. But 73% of banking AI initiatives never make it past the pilot stage, Gartner reports.

Why the gap? Because bolting AI onto fragmented architecture is like installing a jet engine on a horse-drawn carriage. It might work briefly in controlled conditions. It fails catastrophically at scale.

The 8% vs 92% divide

Here's what I'm seeing across the industry.

The 92% have AI. They've bought tools. Launched pilots. Celebrated press releases. A chatbot here, a fraud model there, process automation somewhere else. Each delivering incremental value in isolation.

The 8% did something different.

They rebuilt their data foundations so AI can reason over unified customer views. They created orchestration layers where AI agents operate within governed boundaries. They connected their systems so each AI capability makes the others smarter.

McKinsey Senior Partner Henning Soller calls it pilot purgatory: "Despite significant investment, many banks find themselves stuck - unable to scale AI initiatives due to fragmented data, siloed systems, and a lack of unified customer understanding."

Dharmesh Mistry, a banking innovation thought leader I respect, puts it bluntly: "Banks sit on goldmines of customer data but most can't use it effectively because it's scattered across 20, 30, sometimes 40 different systems."

That fragmentation used to be expensive. Now it's existential.

KPMG reports 82% of US banks are increasing AI budgets year over year. They're spending more to stay stuck. Not because they lack ambition. Because they're trying to scale AI on architecture that can't support it.

Why most "AI-native" claims are fiction

Walk into any major bank today and count the AI deployments. You'll find dozens.

A virtual assistant handling basic queries. Fraud detection in payments. Credit scoring models. Document processing automation. Recommendation engines. Next-best-action tools. Each launched with fanfare. Each working within its silo.

Ask them to work together and watch what happens. The chatbot can't access the fraud system's context. The recommendation engine operates on stale data because it can't see real-time transactions. The credit model can't incorporate behavioral signals because those live in a different platform.

This is AI-deployed, not AI-native.

Real AI-native banking requires four foundational capabilities that most banks lack.

First, unified intelligence. A single source of truth that AI can reason over - not data scattered across 20-40 systems that requires overnight reconciliation. Every interaction. Every transaction. Every context signal. Unified in real time.

Second, governed orchestration. A control plane where AI agents operate within defined boundaries - policy enforcement, entitlement controls, audit trails, and explainability built in. Not AI operating through back doors outside normal governance.

Third, front-to-back integration. AI that works across the entire customer journey - acquisition, activation, servicing, retention - not isolated in single channels or use cases. When a customer moves from mobile to branch to call center, AI context travels with them.

Fourth, deterministic-probabilistic bridging. Architecture that safely combines deterministic banking workflows (compliance requires if X then Y) with probabilistic AI outputs (maybe X, likely Y). Most banks have one or the other. AI-native banking requires both working together.

The examples cited in articles about Grasshopper Bank and Capital One's Eno? Those are real. They're also exceptions, not norms. For every bank successfully scaling AI, dozens are stuck deploying tools that can't talk to each other.

The orchestration imperative

Here's where I see most banks get it wrong.

They think AI-native banking is about automation. Replace humans with machines. Cut costs through efficiency. Automate everything.

Wrong.

BCG shows only one in four banks use AI in a way that adds competitive value. The other three? Automating processes while missing the bigger opportunity.

Orchestration.

Automation replaces human tasks with machine tasks. Linear. Brittle. Modest efficiency gains.

Orchestration coordinates AI and humans working together. AI handles complexity, scale, and speed. Humans handle nuance, judgment, and relationships. Together, they transform capability in ways neither can achieve alone.

Bank of America's Erica demonstrates the difference. Over 2.5 billion customer interactions. Massive scale. But Erica doesn't replace bankers - it orchestrates the relationship between AI assistance and human expertise. Customers get instant answers to routine questions. Bankers get surfaced insights for complex conversations. Everyone works on higher-value tasks.

McKinsey research shows AI-augmented bankers achieve 30-40% productivity gains. Not from working harder, but from AI handling the administrative burden that consumes 70% of the average relationship manager's time.

This is the AI-native banking opportunity - not replacing humans, but elevating them.

But orchestration requires architecture. You can't bolt it onto fragmented systems. You need unified data that both AI and humans access. You need workflows where handoffs between AI and human are seamless and governed. You need policies that apply equally to both.

Most banks aren't building this. They're deploying AI tools in isolation and calling it transformation.

The invisible bank is the logical endpoint

So where does this lead?

Chris Shayan, our Head of AI at Backbase, calls it the Invisible Bank. Banking that happens autonomously on your behalf. Within guardrails you control. No clicks. No apps. No conscious effort.

He describes a Financial Digital Twin - an AI-powered version of you with power of attorney within boundaries you define. It monitors your financial situation. Predicts cash flow needs. Optimizes savings. Negotiates better rates. Moves money. Pays bills. Invisibly. Autonomously. Safely.

Sounds like science fiction. Until you realize the architecture exists today.

What's missing? The unified data foundation and orchestration layer that makes autonomous operation safe and governable.

I'm seeing early manifestations now. Systems predicting cash flow issues and offering microloans within seconds. AI preventing fraud and issuing refunds automatically. But these are isolated capabilities, not orchestrated systems.

AI-native banking makes the invisible bank possible. It provides the foundation for safe autonomy. Unified customer data AI can reason over. Governance that applies to autonomous agents. Orchestration that coordinates multiple AI capabilities. Explainability that satisfies regulators.

Without that foundation? Autonomous banking is dangerous.

With it? Inevitable.

Accenture's 2026 trends report says banks that operationalize AI agents will see transformative improvements. But only one in four banks worldwide is using AI to gain competitive advantage. The rest? Stuck in pilot mode.

The difference is always architecture.

The fraud arms race exposes the divide

While banks debate strategy, fraudsters moved to AI-first operations.

Signicat reports a 2,137% increase in deepfake fraud attempts in fintech. Not 21%. Twenty-one hundred percent. Deloitte projects fraud losses hit $40 billion by 2027.

Traditional identity verification is failing. Selfie checks? Deepfakes fool them. Voice authentication? Synthetic voice generation fools family members. Regula shows 36% of firms were hit by deepfake voice fraud in 2024 alone.

David Jimenez Maireles from Fintech Wrap Up gets it: "Fraud doesn't sleep. It's constantly evolving, and unfortunately, it's often one step ahead of the defenses we put in place."

Here's what matters.

For banks with AI-native architecture, this is solvable. Continuous behavioral authentication across channels. Multi-modal verification combining multiple signals. AI systems sharing context to spot anomalies siloed systems miss.

For banks with fragmented deployments? Each fraud system operates blind. The customer who authenticated via voice still gets flagged by the payment system that doesn't know about it. The deepfake that fools onboarding goes undetected because the behavioral system can't access session data.

Fraud exposure is becoming a proxy for AI maturity.

The pattern will accelerate. Criminal AI improves faster than bank AI. No compliance constraints. No legacy integration challenges. No internal resistance. They adopt what works. Iterate rapidly. Share techniques globally.

Banks on AI-native architecture can keep pace. Banks bolting AI onto legacy systems cannot.

Embedded finance separates strategic from defensive

One more trend reveals which banks understand AI-native banking and which don't - their approach to embedded finance.

Defensive banks see embedded finance as a threat. Fintechs and Big Tech embedding financial services into their platforms, stealing customer relationships, bypassing the traditional bank.

Strategic banks see embedded finance as distribution. A $320 billion market by 2030, according to Dealroom. A channel to reach the 4.3 billion digital wallet users who prefer integrated financial services within non-financial apps.

Sam Boboev, also of Fintech Wrap Up, frames the shift: "Embedded finance isn't just a channel - it's a fundamental shift in how banking services are discovered and consumed. Banks that don't participate will find themselves disintermediated by those that do."

AI-native banking enables this shift. When your intelligence layer is unified and your orchestration is governed, you can expose banking services as APIs that work anywhere. When your AI and data are fragmented across 40 systems, you can't package anything safely for external use.

The banks winning at embedded finance aren't the ones with the most branches. They're the ones with the most composable architecture. They can embed a loan application in a merchant checkout. They can offer cash flow forecasting inside accounting software. They can provide fraud protection as a service to platforms.

This becomes the new battleground. Banking moves from destination to infrastructure. The question isn't whether customers come to your branch or app. It's whether your banking intelligence powers the experiences they're already using.

AI-native banking makes this possible. Everything else keeps you trapped in the old game.

The 36-month window

So why 36 months?

Because that's how long it takes for compounding advantages to become unbridgeable gaps.

Banks that unified their data foundations in 2024-2025 are now scaling AI across every workflow. Every customer interaction trains the model. Every channel makes the others smarter. Every AI agent benefits from the unified view. They're compounding advantages.

Banks still working on data integration in 2026 won't catch up. By the time they finish unifying data (12-18 months), the leaders will have deployed AI across dozens of workflows. By the time they build orchestration layers (another 12-18 months), the leaders will have autonomous agents handling what used to require human bankers.

The math is brutal. If you're 24 months behind on foundation work, and the leaders are improving 2-3% monthly through AI optimization, you're not catching up. You're falling further behind.

BCG research shows banks with unified architecture achieve 3-5x higher ROI on AI investments compared to those attempting AI on fragmented foundations. That advantage compounds. The unified banks invest more because they're seeing returns. The fragmented banks cut AI budgets because pilots aren't scaling.

By 2028-2029, the divide will be obvious in financial results. The AI-native banks will have 35-40% better cost-income ratios. They'll retain 15-20% more deposits through hyper-personalized experiences. They'll handle 3x the volume with the same headcount.

The banks that spent 2024-2026 deploying AI tools instead of building AI foundations will be acquisition targets or failures.

It's not that AI-native banking is coming. It's that the window to become AI-native is closing. Fast.

What to do now

Three diagnostic questions tell you everything.

First - how many systems hold customer data? More than five? You don't have the unified foundation AI requires. You're building on sand.

Second - when a customer moves from mobile to branch to call center, does context travel with them? If bankers ask customers to repeat information they just entered in the app, you don't have orchestration. You have siloed AI that can't coordinate.

Third - when you deploy a new AI capability, does it benefit from everything the bank knows about customers? Or does it require custom integration to access data from other systems? If it's the latter, you're not AI-native. You're AI-bolted.

Those three questions reveal whether you're in the 8% or the 92%.

For the 92%? The path forward isn't easy. You can't AI-transform your way out of architectural problems. Unify data first. Build orchestration second. Deploy AI third. Most banks are doing it backward and wondering why nothing scales.

For the 8%? The opportunity is enormous. You have 36 months to extend advantages that will define competitive position for the next decade. Deploy autonomous agents. Embed banking services everywhere. Move from reactive to proactive to autonomous.

AI-native banking isn't coming. It's already here. The question is whether you're building it right.

About the author
Backbase
Backbase is on a mission to to put bankers back in the driver’s seat.

Backbase is on a mission to put bankers back in the driver’s seat - fully equipped to lead the AI revolution and unlock remarkable growth and efficiency. At the heart of this mission is the world’s first AI-powered Banking Platform, unifying all servicing and sales journeys into an integrated suite. With Backbase, banks modernize their operations across every line of business - from Retail and SME to Commercial, Private Banking, and Wealth Management.

Recognized as a category leader by Forrester, Gartner, Celent, and IDC, Backbase powers the digital and AI transformations of over 150 financial institutions worldwide. See some of their stories here.

Founded in 2003 in Amsterdam, Backbase is a global private fintech company with regional headquarters in Atlanta and Singapore, and offices across London, Sydney, Toronto, Dubai, Kraków, Cardiff, Hyderabad, and Mexico City.

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